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[虚拟币交流]
当前市场：为什么BTC横盘但Altcoin却在“流血”？
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在最近的几次走势中，我们很容易注意到：BTC横盘（震荡）在稳定的价格区间内。
3 f: e0 i" m V7 LAltcoin持续下跌，尽管比特币尚未出现剧烈下跌。
4 |! |# J e" P1 V% u越南市场的USDT汇率仍然很高，显示出对稳定币的需求并未减弱。& f% j# S, _ j
你们可以比较两张图表：altcoin/BTC和Altcoin/USDT的相对强弱指数。
% f- Y/ A2 w4 P- M从九月初开始。上涨时，alt/btc弱于usdt，因为atl/usdt对冲使用了期货杠杆，而下跌时则强于usdt，因为直接通过现货交易。
0 d9 I& k i1 d+ w- c- J$ B" lalt/btc
. I, m; R# }$ z* Ralt/usdt- `- ^; m# w, Z' H( Q
那么，发生了什么？
: L; E4 @; S. c; P9 I& e1. 大户轮换资金
7 W0 q" Q) u1 u; ^与其直接将山寨币抛售为USDT（会导致alt/USDT图表大幅下滑），大户和市场做市商选择将山寨币转换为BTC或ETH。, Y4 k! x5 g$ U- c# T' E- d
这种方式使得alt/USDT对看起来仍然相对稳定。
9 s+ k; Z' P0 W) N" y. A& ^但实际上，如果观察ALT/BTC或ALT/ETH对，我们会发现山寨币贬值非常严重。
/ Z' b5 b$ I5 F: s9 _% U4 r4 r* s2. 市场的防御心理3 J5 ]! G( v, A
投资者正在缩小风险，优先选择BTC和ETH——这些资产流动性大，波动性小。5 ]$ c' [2 d* r
这解释了为什么资金没有流入山寨币，导致它们逐渐疲弱。0 S5 Z; L( M$ o7 F1 a8 ]
3. 需要关注的信号- N$ X7 b9 O k# r+ [: h6 _& \
BTC主导率和ETH主导率有上升趋势→确认资金流向大币种。9 h! D6 @! V: y8 t3 N7 u
山寨币市场总市值持续下降→显示山寨币仍在被抽血。$ W; {" s& r" G+ }
USDT保持高价→稳定币需求依然强劲，USDT主导率仍高，但尚未出现资金愿意冒险回流的迹象。
" C# F3 G6 M* b3 W1 H4. 对投资者的意义
# O" M8 c# n+ }" K9 Y' T# B在这个阶段，缺乏新买盘的山寨币难以形成独立波动。% Z* v4 ^5 H' Y. p' B
如果BTC横盘时间过长后再大幅波动，山寨币可能会被“踩”出一个波段。
) [, e( T% B4 j& {( q6 [% Y; a( T安全策略：关注资金流动，避免过多持有弱势山寨币，集中于顶级币或在强烈信号出现后再大举投资山寨币。! f) `* f5 y! g! p# u( I
结论：市场正进入大户收集BTC/ETH流动性的阶段，山寨币只是资金轮换周期中的“猎物”。散户投资者需要保持警觉，不要被alt/USDT尚未崩盘的感觉迷惑，以为这是机会。
5 z' X: h# F9 }% a9 x# e8 {9 g#加密货币#
. I& x6 J( k) v6 c& _8 Z. y1 y* x
6 f1 }/ D( @1 _/ g |
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市场操作有点阴谋论，大户在搞鬼转移资金，小散步森严防范保身。 |
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这波山寨币被割得血淋淋的，BTC装死不动，小币全在裸奔，庄家明显在抽水换仓呢 |
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