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[lastpost] => 2749378 为什么比特币今天会下跌?分析师认为有3个主要原因!下一波大幅反弹将出现-转 1752948872 爬格子的瘦书生
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币与 3 万亿美元美国债务——现在是购买 BTC 的时候了吗?(转)
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雷·达里奥 (Ray Dalio) 警告称,美国债务可能会使与美元挂钩的财富贬值。
$ g7 X: y; w- y$ O加密货币领导者将财政混乱视为 BTC 的看涨催化剂。6 {& X' K' N1 v
比特币[BTC]随着 7 月 3 日税收和支出法案通过后美国债务问题成为头条新闻,加密货币推特上出现了大量看涨言论。
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根据 估计,预计该法案将在未来10年内增加3万多亿美元。
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; n9 a5 N6 N% z- }1 ?. r0 \但是,对冲基金桥水基金创始人雷·达利奥著名的 如果该法案按原样实施,债务可能会失控。
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3 Q1 S# v) Y/ P* k! P \他警告说,未来10年内,普通美国家庭的债务负担可能变得难以承受。
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) f0 j R5 p! Y可能的后果是什么?增税、削减ZF支出或增加印钞。这可能会削弱美元的价值,并损害那些依赖美元来保住财富的人。
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他表示,. z' z$ n2 d* k
# [0 l u, O: Z% T# c2 T0 \- O“这种印钞和贬值行为对于那些将债券作为财富储备的人来说并不好,而对债券和美国信贷市场不利的事情对每个人来说都是不利的。”
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BTC 的完美风暴?
* K% ~1 ^! O# k0 A; _3 W5 A加密货币领袖声称,这种可能的财政混乱和后果正是比特币存在的原因。( |# S! ]% G- h9 D0 d
; t6 |+ y; u3 U/ V; N$ r作为一种固定供应的数字资产,与美元等传统货币相比,它成为一种相对较好的价值储存手段。
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* m1 `3 j* r( O, h! J% K G4 b7 A这些货币供应量无限,由各国央行随意印制。简而言之,BTC、黄金和其他稀缺商品的需求量将会很大。8 N( T5 p, M, z: R& J7 ~
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Bitwise 首席信息官 Matt Hougan 对 Dalio 的警告作出回应 敦促用户“购买比特币”。
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) s1 X% g7 a2 M1 RReal Vision 的 Raoul Pal 也赞同 Hougan 的观点,添加在这种贬值情况下,只有技术和加密货币才是更好的对冲工具。
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“在长期牛市中,贬值对冲只有两种表现显著优异:科技和加密货币。”
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: C/ J9 r! m9 l尽管达利欧公开表示承认与拥有一些 BTC 相比,他更倾向于黄金。
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他表示,追踪黄金价格走势更容易,尤其是在冲突期间。但他发现追踪比特币价格走势却很难,因此得出结论,比特币仍然是一种投机行为。) X: X8 |: u/ n% N: ]* [5 F5 }
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然而,对贝莱德的拉里·芬克来说,BTC 是数字黄金。事实上,他警告今年 4 月,如果财政债务得不到管理,人民币很容易取代美元成为世界储备货币。
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即便如此,财政部长斯科特·贝森特淡化与支出法案相关的债务问题。, d* H: L, ~& j P% r- H
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“我们的 GDP 增长速度快于债务增长速度,这种趋势将持续到总统剩余的任期。”
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, `/ @2 f4 B( m# y% `# K与此同时,Coinbase 分析师警告“大美丽法案”将债务上限提高了 5 万亿美元。
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' V9 ~# J* e" }1 I结果,美国财政部可能会补充(从市场借钱)其主要现金账户或TGA(国库普通账户),并挤压流动性,拖累包括BTC在内的风险资产。
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5 E6 z- G& Z& {9 U1 A$ y“TGA 的补充可能会在短期内消耗大盘的流动性,对所有风险资产构成明显的下行风险。”' s3 N N" v7 ?
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