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[虚拟币交流]
150亿美元期权到期冲击比特币和以太坊——底部遥遥无期？（转）
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一件大事发生又过去了，加密货币市场几乎没有反应。
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* U2 v, Y& Q/ |2 B3 F1 }" ]6 n. C. ?11月28日，约有15万份比特币（比特币）期权（价值134亿美元）和57.3万份以太坊（以太坊）期权（价值17亿美元）到期，总价值达154亿美元。简而言之，这标志着本月末一次重要的期权到期。
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有趣的部分是什么？职位浓度很高：BTC的看跌/看涨比率达到 0.58，这意味着多头多于空头，最大损失约为 10 万美元。ETH完美平衡，看跌/看涨期权比率为 1.0，最大损失为 3.4k 美元。# E9 L1 I0 N' ^" m; n3 V2 Z# g
& j. K1 \2 w4 X5 a) S然而，尽管到期债券规模巨大，市场却几乎没有波动。6 T8 k9 P" R; S& P6 V7 K% Z
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从技术角度来看，比特币收于 90,955 美元，盘中最高触及 93,000 美元，低于其最大止损位。需要说明的是，最大止损位是指期权卖方（空头）为了限制损失而卖出比特币的价格。( M! [9 A# e5 b( L5 u" k6 E
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在这种情况下，由于比特币价格保持在 10 万美元以下，卖方无需费力推高价格，市场也保持相对平静。因此，真正的问题是：这种稳定是否体现了比特币的潜在实力？# S* t4 W' d( @3 B6 I7 N/ z
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干净利落地冲刷并冷静地等待比特币触底反弹。3 a6 G, A8 a/ F6 ?: M" u7 g
市场仍在试图判断比特币是否真的已经触底。
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6 C8 W6 O0 ~+ i% A# |5 v4 S7 T在此背景下，BitMEX创始人亚瑟·海耶斯有人认为比特币可能已经触底反弹。在最近一次抛售潮中，他看好该股股价达到 8 万美元。他的这一观点基于美联储可能即将结束量化紧缩周期的假设。) ~+ i, P" z i# J5 [4 P& Y
0 o! |5 ^% j9 z6 m4 p同时，CryptoQuant 指出市场刚刚经历了本周期以来最大规模的未平仓合约清仓。合约规模从约450亿美元骤降至280亿美元，大量过热头寸被清除。7 a- J2 r- J0 {" d1 e4 Y* {/ K: e
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简而言之，市场经历了一次彻底的洗牌。
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! ] y8 [2 y% ]( r* [在此背景下，价值 150 亿美元的比特币和以太坊期权到期时，杠杆率已经大幅下降。这也解释了为什么此次事件几乎没有引起市场波动。
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/ I$ B% R0 d1 M! s与此同时，在避险情绪浓厚的环境下，即使比特币价格一度飙升至 10 万美元，但仍能维持在 9 万美元左右，这表明卖方并不需要进一步压低价格。买家仍在陆续介入。捍卫支持。
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4 X8 w% Z4 D) j. u: H- K2 U ]在这种情况下，这种韧性可能是比特币触底的早期迹象。& Z; K: ?" @& O* v4 ^; I2 Y
# R- y- E$ W1 U. F# v$ N+ U最后想说的话
. r% m( A$ M& V$ X& s9 U6 i尽管大量比特币和以太坊到期，但市场几乎没有波动，显示出较低的波动性，因为杠杆已经清算完毕。
( ?/ |: Z" A. z1 k比特币价格维持在 9 万美元左右，低于最高价位（10 万美元），这表明买家守住了支撑位，市场可能正在形成底部。
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