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小分3种情况:3 G# i$ q, ]' G7 R' L( p
3 m% m7 ]7 a3 T ~# L1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。
" I! C6 X9 @6 z& f
. L- T5 }# {6 m) |) a2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。
2 ^, c6 ^; N$ U0 {; P3 D4 v1 Y% v3 F$ M, m# E ?3 F& Y
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。
5 m! y6 [; ^( f6 m" k% J. X' x& E) h7 S
2张牌8或9点的情况有:
3 @" j6 f% P7 r9 A* m" H/ B8 D; J$ N, D4 S3 Q. Z# V$ f1 }
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10
w5 Q. {* a. b* y/ h# Y
* F4 X( _, x I' ?+ N1 M0 o' s5 d1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415
+ W( d$ [$ C% r* v9 S7 W) C7 }+ V8 _0 z& e% V' n
4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415- u+ @ W. P& B% m
( \. t- l8 f/ b& m: x
8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415
% b" S- @' |; v- ^6 Q5 f/ n. v. q( W1 n8 Q# y" }3 p7 l( n9 {
由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。8 M0 P# H1 t/ N0 ^, p6 y
, h2 b' {% K) U, B3 t# q
通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。5 M e, [) F* b7 p# m \ T
- s- _3 o: T1 o) m- L那么我们可以得出) G# P1 t% G. {; v% G0 D
. e$ r1 P9 l3 i6 F
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662
3 H0 J9 c! F _0 n6 a: M; h, U6 ]7 e; S2 L
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171 6 K- ?! Q) V3 \
$ P; I' p3 Q% `* v& p& _3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491# ]2 V' j+ ]/ S+ Z' x
" Y; h$ I1 W; B6 q8 m所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.3788693237 ~& t* |2 R9 n# _1 c5 T
# Z3 ~6 L$ a4 M S4 Y5 X% e
百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677% }, @6 O+ [& E% `& p
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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